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2014: The Beginning of the End of the Tech Boom

This article is part of an ongoing series about major themes for the technology business in 2014. 

Predicting when the technology boom will end may be a fool’s errand.

Arthur Patterson, a 42-year veteran of the venture-capital industry, isn’t afraid to say we’re in the last innings. He has long pointed to 2014 as the year that information-technology investments and startup valuations would peak. In a recent interview, he says he’s sticking with his view. After all, he says, the cycle is progressing as expected: A wave of tech companies will see blockbuster IPOs over the next year or so, marking the tail end of the boom. Then the industry will begin a roughly six-year slide.

“About seven years from now, tech IPOs will look dead, Silicon Valley real estate will be reasonable, traffic will be tolerable and people will be discussing what killed the innovation engine of Silicon Valley,” Mr.  Patterson says.

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As an investor, Mr. Gil adheres to the famous words attributed to mutual-fund legend Peter Lynch: “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”

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