Another week, another round of “bubble” prognostications. This wave was triggered by a little deja vu—AOL being absorbed into a big company, again. The over-covered, overplayed deal caused some to call another top. “I’m calling it now: every time aol gets bought it’s the peak of the bubble,” Kara Swisher Tweeted.
I’m in a different camp. Despite some eye-popping valuations, I think a reckoning is still a few years away for a simple reason: There is still massive amounts of money sloshing around globally that hasn’t made its way into tech—and it will end up somewhere.
When I interviewed venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya at an event run by the Founder Institute this week, he said rising oil wealth means more money will be pumped into tech, pushing back a hard landing for two to three years. (We Tweeted highlights from the talk here.)
But the honest truth is that no one really knows when valuations will stop climbing and start falling, especially if you consider one often overlooked fact.