2026: The Year of an IPO Thaw?

After four years in a deep freeze, initial public offerings are finally showing signs of life. Tech companies like Klarna, StubHub, and Figure have recently hit the exchange, signaling that the long initial public offering winter may—at last—be coming to an end.

But it’s not just IPOs driving renewed optimism. Mergers and acquisitions, special purpose acquisition companies, and direct listings are also on the rise, giving founders a growing number of off-ramps. To unpack whether this momentum will hold, Katie Roof, The Information’s deputy bureau chief of venture capital, sat down with three investment leaders during SF Tech Week:

• Erik Peña, head of market development, New York Stock Exchange
• Charly Kevers, chief financial officer, Carta
• Art Levy, chief business officer, Brex

IPOs on the Rebound

Peña said 2025 has been a solid year for IPOs, with 50 listings on the NYSE raising about $20 billion. Around 20 were tech companies—below the historical highs of 30 to 40 a year but “a sign the market is definitely opening.”

Beyond tech, he noted, financials, energy, and healthcare each represent 10% to 15% of new listings. And unlike in previous cycles, companies are generally waiting longer to go public—12 to 14 years after founding, compared with five or six years in the past. Peña attributed that delay to the explosion of private capital, which has reduced the urgency to list.

“There are now three or four private companies valued north of $200 billion,” he said. “If you rewind 10 years, there wasn’t a single one worth more than $50 billion.”

Today’s IPO candidates are also larger and more stable. Most generate at least $100 million in annual revenue—double the bar for earlier classes. Investors, Peña said, now appear to prioritize clear profitability over top-line growth.

Levy, whose company Brex has long eyed an IPO, said the trend toward delayed listings reflect a new pragmatism: in an uncertain economy, companies want to make sure they’re truly ready before taking the leap. “We see the IPO as a step in the journey to building a generational company,” he said. “We want consistent profitability, scale and growth before we go public.”

Even as IPOs regain momentum, share sales involving private companies has have surged. Carta’s Kevers said such transactions are at their highest levels since 2021 and demand from buyers is keeping prices high. “Tender offers that used to happen at 30% discounts are now closer to 10%—and for AI companies, just 5% to 8%,” he said.

Profitability Over Growth

All three panelists agreed the era of growth at all costs is over. Profitability is now the defining prerequisite for an IPO—or even a late-stage funding round.

“Everyone realized in 2022 that the market was going to be tough,” Kevers said. “Today, companies see profitability as a path to a deal, rather than trying to get a deal and figure out profitability later.”

Levy noted that public investors now reward discipline: “If you’re not profitable—or close to it—you can see it immediately in your stock performance.”

It’s an AI World

No topic loomed larger than AI. Levy quipped that in private markets, “if your name doesn’t end with dot-ai, investors don’t care about you.” He argued that the obsession has blinded some investors to successful companies outside the trend.

“VCs in San Francisco don’t mention Figure [Technology],” which makes home loans on its blockchain, he said. “That’s a $10 billion company.” While private investors chase a return of three or five times the capital they invest, he added, public markets “just want growth and profitability.”

Exits, Exits Everywhere

Beyond IPOs, the panelists pointed to a resurgence of special purpose acquisition companies, direct listings and acquisitions as evidence that founders once again have multiple viable paths to exit. Levy said many late-stage startups are pursuing dual-track strategies, prepping for both IPOs and acquisitions.

“If you beautify a company for an IPO, you’re also getting it ready for a sale,” he said. Peña cautioned that failed merger and acquisition attempts can complicate IPO plans.

2021-Era Unicorns: Zombies or Phoenixes?

The panel also revisited the fate of the “zombie unicorns,” the 1,000-plus startups minted in 2021 with valuations over $1 billion, many of which have since struggled to sustain growth. Levy pointed to Navan as one of the few exceptions—companies that managed to keep expanding despite the downturn.

“For some of these zombie unicorns, growth stopped, and they’re effed,” he said. “But a small group—let’s call them phoenixes—have never stopped growing and are now headed to an IPO.”