Sign up to receive 5 free days of our daily summary for tech news.

Join us for just $10/month for our analysis of Facebook's new cryptocurrency announcement on 6/18.

Read this article for free.

Already a subscriber? Log in here

On the eve of New Year 2010, I published a set of predictions about what the technology industry would look like a decade later, in 2020.

Since we are now halfway through that decade, I thought it would be a good time to check in to learn some lessons from how they are shaping up. I had some big misses. I thought that data and platforms would be much more open by 2020 than I now believe they will be. I missed some big trends, like the importance of mobile apps. In other areas, like startups and content, my predictions appear to be holding.

Overall, I think I underestimated the power of incumbent financial and distribution structures and missed how fundamentally different the mobile ecosystem would be from the desktop world.  

Here’s a breakdown by area, with the relevant parts of the 2010 predictions and my evaluation. You can read my full 2010 predictions in much more detail here.

What Is The Information?

Notes bb3aa5069205d702dda37fc71dc6f1c59df2310c4379304e9f1199f052af4884

Exclusive Articles

We broke it first. Receive original reporting you won't read anywhere else from the largest newsroom in tech.

Notebook b5103017ee163370a1667c9ce59ab0ef023875a17888105d26c185cadf31bb69

Daily news analysis

Every weeknight, we'll send you our reporters’ views on the day’s top tech news—distilled into one email.

Conference calls c9e664e8b96ee347d3e92b8309938f268422b9db98cfabca5c826fbb75054b23

Conference calls

Get access to our reporters and other top executives with monthly deep-dive calls into topics like startups and autonomous vehicles.

Events 499acedd16cffc41445edd76bfd302b2836c2a27419890f17130a6b10e2aa3df

Special Events

For no extra fee, get access to more than a dozen events yearly, from intimate dinners to larger gatherings with marquee speakers.

What else is included in my subscription?

Become a contributor

Share your views and find other subscribers by completing your profile. You’ll be listed in our contributor directory.

Slack community

Discuss topics and current events with our subscriber-only Slack group and share news about your company with other subscribers.

Annual Subscriber only benefits:

Org Charts

Access the only collection of tech company org charts. Our expanding database includes companies like Amazon, Snap, and Uber.

Crypto Newsletter

Our experts investigate the latest in the crypto world to keep you in-the-know about the movements of digital currencies.

Stay up to date on Silicon Valley

Sign up for Jessica Lessin’s (The Information’s CEO & Founder) free Saturday newsletter and also receive a complimentary week of our daily afternoon tech commentary email.

Already a subscriber? Log in here

Recent Articles

Autonomous Vehicles

SoftBank’s Ronen Says Self-Driving Market “Big Boys’ Game”

By Cory Weinberg, Aaron Tilley, and Kevin McLaughlin

Crypto Facebook

Eight Takeaways From Facebook’s Libra Cryptocurrency

By Jon Victor and Alex Heath

Looking a bit further ahead to 2020, however, I suspect that in another five-year window there will be another major shift or two that I am currently massively underestimating just as I did the impact of mobile during the last period.