The modern U.S. technology economy has experienced two recessions in its relatively short existence: the 1999 dot-com bust, and the Great Recession that began in 2008. Both transformed the technology industry, killing off companies built on unsustainable models while forcing others to adjust to changing circumstances.

There are signs that a third recession is possible, and just like the last two, it is unlikely to leave the tech industry unscathed. A recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction, isn’t a sure thing. After all, U.S. unemployment is at a multi-decade low, hiring remains brisk and consumer spending is strong.