Walt Disney Co. is expected to reveal by February how many subscribers its new streaming service, Disney Plus, has signed up. I’m betting the numbers will be huge. By the fall of next year, I predict, Disney will be more than halfway to its 2024 target of 60 million to 90 million subscribers, with between 35 million and 45 million subscribers.
But beyond that success lies considerable uncertainty. The subscriber number I expect Disney to report includes people who are getting it for free for a year through Disney’s deal with Verizon. That means by November, when Disney Plus is one year old, it will have to contend with the possibility of many of those Verizon customers canceling rather than having to pay $6.99 a month.