China tech IPOs, of companies such as Xiaomi and Pinduoduo, have struggled this year. That puts the spotlight on the next big U.S. public offering from China, which is likely to be Tencent Music Entertainment Group, China’s answer to Spotify. Its valuation has soared on private tech markets lately, suggesting that investors anticipate its IPO could prove as successful as Spotify’s public listing in April. It’s a riskier bet than Spotify, but could pay off hugely.

U.S. investors have recently agreed to buy private stock in Tencent Music from earlier shareholders at a valuation between $28 billion and $30 billion, according to four people familiar with the matter. That’s up from $11.5 billion in December. And it suggests Tencent Music is worth nearly as much as Spotify—whose market capitalization on Thursday was $34.6 billion, up 30% since the listing.