Welcome to 2023 and a very happy new year. I’ve been covering technology for almost two decades, and I can’t think of a year that’s been more consequential than the current one. Everywhere you look, the guard is changing, and there’s no clear idea what’s next. So for my first Briefing of the year, I wanted to lay out some of the big themes dominating conversation in Silicon Valley today. 

1. New Venture Capital Playbook

The game of the last five years—at least—is over. And no one really knows how to play the next one. For years, venture capitalists focused on backing companies they believed would be marked up by late-stage private investors like Tiger Global Management. “Picking winners” meant picking companies that could raise a big growth round at a higher valuation. But those growth investors have retreated and a new strategy is needed. Every venture capitalist I talk to has a different view on what will emerge. Will investors go back to basics and back proven founders? Will they go far afield and look for investments in newer, riskier growth areas? I’m not sure investors at the same firms are even on the same page. This is all getting sorted out now.