A year ago, at the close of the decade, I made a set of predictions about 2030. Three months later, on March 9, with the U.S.’s daily count of new Covid-19 cases at 200, I added an early projection about how Covid would change the future of tech.

With a year of distance from my 2030 predictions, and nine months of living with Covid as a daily reality, I took some time to examine the long-term implications of the virus—and our response to it—for society and technology. What seems clear to me is that the events of 2020 will turn out to be less game-changing in the long term than they might seem right now.