Art by Sam Lessin.
Modest Proposals
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My 2020 Predictions: A Reality Check

Photo: Art by Sam Lessin.

On the eve of New Year 2010, I published a set of predictions about what the technology industry would look like a decade later, in 2020.

Since we are now halfway through that decade, I thought it would be a good time to check in to learn some lessons from how they are shaping up. I had some big misses. I thought that data and platforms would be much more open by 2020 than I now believe they will be. I missed some big trends, like the importance of mobile apps. In other areas, like startups and content, my predictions appear to be holding.

Overall, I think I underestimated the power of incumbent financial and distribution structures and missed how fundamentally different the mobile ecosystem would be from the desktop world.  

Here’s a breakdown by area, with the relevant parts of the 2010 predictions and my evaluation. You can read my full 2010 predictions in much more detail here.

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