The dockless scooter wars are in full swing. With the announcement of huge funding rounds at billion-dollar valuations, deals with ride-hailing companies and a spate of local regulatory action, there is a lot of attention being paid to the scooter market, and a lot of wild predictions being made by industry watchers.

As timelines for commercial-grade self-driving cars drift further into the future, scooter companies are absorbing some of the energy. Yet that doesn’t mean scooter companies have it made. While I strongly believe that on-demand scooters are going to be a great mobility service for customers, and might generate some good returns for lucky VCs, ultimately I don’t think it will be a good business.