The wave of fervor over self-driving cars is putting Uber in a precarious position. At first blush, it is easy to believe that fully autonomous vehicles will be the step that propels a valuable company to unfathomable heights. But a deeper look reveals that self-driving technology poses a strategic problem for the company.

If unsupervised, fully autonomous cars fill the road too quickly over the next several years, Uber will be far more vulnerable to competitors like Google and Apple—who have both lower capital costs and the ability to acquire customers cheaply.