There’s a feeling in Silicon Valley that the latest breed of big startups—companies like Uber, Dropbox and Airbnb—are “all grown up,” meaning they’ve had their run up in valuations and investors seeking big returns must look elsewhere.

But there’s also a feeling that the next big wave is proving hard to spot.

There’ s a key lesson investors can learn from the rise of the sharing economy to better predict the next cohort of $10 billion-plus startups. The lesson is to bet on the disruptors over the innovators.