Rising geopolitical tensions could spell the end of a 16-year relationship for Sequoia Capital and Sequoia Capital China. We predict the U.S. venture powerhouse and its Chinese affiliate, led by star deal maker Neil Shen, will move to part ways next year as the Chinese government extends a regulatory crackdown on tech companies and U.S. investment firms grow more reluctant to pour money into China.
Losing Shen’s ability to pick local winners such as Didi, JD.com and TikTok owner ByteDance would be a loss for Sequoia Capital. But such a dramatic shake-up seems more likely after Sequoia in October announced a major restructuring to its U.S. and European funds that should give it more power to win deals against a growing pool of competitors, and as Shen looks unlikely to succeed global managing partner Doug Leone at the helm of the storied Silicon Valley firm. (Read our other 2022 predictions here and here.)