True Value

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Apple CEO Tim Cook. Photo by Bloomberg.
True Value

When iPhones Seem Pricier

By Martin Peers · Sep 9, 2015 9:06am PDT · 1 comment
Today’s Apple event will show off a new iPhone offering lots of glitzy new features, sure to attract the usual deluge of media attention. But anyone trying to figure out how the iPhone will sell in the future should focus less on these features and more on cellular carriers’ pricing.In the past two years, the major carriers have... Today’s Apple event will show off a new iPhone offering lots of glitzy new features, sure...
A New York Stock Exchange specialist. Photo by AP.
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Private Tech: The New Realities

By The Information Staff · Aug 25, 2015 7:06am PDT · 1 comment
Private tech investors are bracing for how a Wall Street selloff could send ripple effects throughout the private side tech, preparing for new realities around fundraising, hirings and exits. The Information spoke with about half a dozen investors Monday to determine what they’re looking out for and how they’re adapting to changing market... Private tech investors are bracing for how a Wall Street selloff could send ripple effects...
Gilt Groupe Chairman Kevin Ryan. Photo by Bloomberg.
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Mutual Funds Show Markdowns On Private Stocks

By Alfred Lee · Aug 20, 2015 7:16am PDT · 2 comments
In the public market, bad news for a company typically sends its stock plunging. In the private market, of course, there’s no opportunity for such an immediate reaction. But the growing number of institutional investors in private companies can still take their own writedowns, providing a window into how valuations in the private tech... In the public market, bad news for a company typically sends its stock plunging. In the private...
Discovery CEO David Zaslav. Photo by Bloomberg.
The Next Issue for Media Firms: Rising Debt
By Martin Peers · Aug 13, 2015 7:01am PDT · 2 comments
Discovery CEO David Zaslav. Photo by Bloomberg.
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The Next Issue for Media Firms: Rising Debt

By Martin Peers · Aug 13, 2015 7:01am PDT · 2 comments
Last week’s media stock implosion reflected an overdue recognition that cord-cutting is hurting media companies’ core television businesses. But there’s another risk that deserves more attention: Debt levels among major media companies have crept up to levels that could become worrisome if their business continues to deteriorate. What makes this... Last week’s media stock implosion reflected an overdue recognition that cord-cutting is hurting...
Vessel co-founder Jason Kilar. Photo by Bloomberg.
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As Pay TV Pie Crumbles, Question Is Where Spending Goes

By Martin Peers · Aug 6, 2015 7:01am PDT
The years-long debate about whether mainstream TV networks are vulnerable to pay TV cord-cutting should now be over, thanks to Walt Disney’s disclosure on Tuesday that its near-term cable channel profits would be affected by ESPN subscriber losses. Little wonder that media stocks plunged on Wednesday. The more interesting question now is how big... The years-long debate about whether mainstream TV networks are vulnerable to pay TV cord-cutting...
Fitbit CEO James Park. Photo by Bloomberg.
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The Tax Accounting Behind Fitbit’s Big Profit Swing

By Alfred Lee · Jul 30, 2015 7:00am PDT
When Fitbit filed to go public this spring, investors focused on its dramatic swing to profitability—a narrative that helped launch one of the most successful IPOs of the year. The stock has more than doubled since its June debut on Wall Street. Some of that attention is warranted: First quarter profits soared on higher sales of the... When Fitbit filed to go public this spring, investors focused on its dramatic swing to...
Google CFO Ruth Porat. Photo by Bloomberg.
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Google’s Gross Margin Mystery and Takeaways from Tech Earnings

By Alfred Lee · Jul 23, 2015 7:00am PDT
Google’s market cap has climbed nearly $60 billion after beating earnings estimates last week. But the narrative in the tech press crediting tougher spending controls—fewer moonshots, slower headcount growth—is incomplete. As a percentage of revenue, operating expenses (excluding cost of revenues) are still up quarter-over-quarter,... Google’s market cap has climbed nearly $60 billion after beating earnings estimates last week....
Netflix CEO Reed Hastings. Photo by Bloomberg.
The Story that Matters About Netflix Stock
By Martin Peers · Jul 16, 2015 7:01am PDT · 1 comment
Netflix CEO Reed Hastings. Photo by Bloomberg.
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The Story that Matters About Netflix Stock

By Martin Peers · Jul 16, 2015 7:01am PDT · 1 comment
Even among boom-fueled tech stocks, Netflix is having a remarkable run. While Google and Facebook have risen 10 and 15 percent respectively since the start of the year, and Amazon is up 48 percent, as of Wednesday, Netflix has doubled in price. If you are looking to understand why, look less to financials and instead towards momentum—a lesson... Even among boom-fueled tech stocks, Netflix is having a remarkable run. While Google and Facebook...
Comcast CEO Brian Roberts. Photo by Bloomberg.
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For Comcast, Online Advertising May Be Next Big Play

By Martin Peers · Jul 8, 2015 12:22pm PDT
When Comcast chief Brian Roberts runs into fellow media moguls at Sun Valley this week, he might feel a little defeated. He was forced to abandon the takeover of Time Warner Cable in the face of regulatory opposition, while rival AT&T is expected to complete its DirecTV purchase and surpass Comcast as the biggest pay TV operator. Meanwhile,... When Comcast chief Brian Roberts runs into fellow media moguls at Sun Valley this week, he might...
Netflix CEO Reed Hastings. Photo by Bloomberg.
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Netflix’s Originals Push Faces Marketing Squeeze

By Martin Peers · Jun 11, 2015 10:01am PDT · 2 comments
Netflix has mastered getting buzz for originals like “House of Cards” through public relations and word of mouth. But as its slate of Netflix-only shows grow, the company will likely have to boost marketing in the competitive U.S. market or risk wasting the estimated $450 million it is spending on originals this year. The streaming service is... Netflix has mastered getting buzz for originals like “House of Cards” through public relations...
Vox CEO Jim Bankoff. Photo by Bloomberg.
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Overpriced Digital Media Firms Could Face Reckoning

By Martin Peers and Tom Dotan · Jun 4, 2015 7:00am PDT · 1 comment
If there’s one field that would seem ripe for consolidation, it’s the one occupied by sites likes Business Insider, Mashable and The Verge. After years of investment by venture capitalists, wealthy families and media companies, there’s an overabundance of these digital quasi-news and entertainment sites. Meaningful profits, though, still seem... If there’s one field that would seem ripe for consolidation, it’s the one occupied by sites likes...
Shutterfly CEO Jeffrey Housenbold. Photo by Bloomberg.
Shutterfly Offers Snapshot of Public Company Peril
By Martin Peers · May 21, 2015 10:00am PDT · 1 comment
Shutterfly CEO Jeffrey Housenbold. Photo by Bloomberg.
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Shutterfly Offers Snapshot of Public Company Peril

By Martin Peers · May 21, 2015 10:00am PDT · 1 comment
There’s little debate that for small companies, being public can be a pain in the neck. The costs of complying with regulatory requirements are high; it can be tough for very small companies to attract Wall Street research and a lot of investors shy away from small stocks out of concern that trading isn’t liquid enough. That’s why there are so... There’s little debate that for small companies, being public can be a pain in the neck. The costs...
Data via Company Filings; Graphic by Peter Schulz
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Tim Armstrong’s Magic Trick

By Martin Peers · May 14, 2015 7:00am PDT · 2 comments
AOL CEO Tim Armstrong developed a reputation as a bit of a klutz over the past five years, caught up in a seemingly never ending soap opera of foot-in-mouth public comments, a revolving door of executives and a corporate strategy that lurched from one thing to another. In the end, though, whether by dumb luck or prescient thinking, he appears to... AOL CEO Tim Armstrong developed a reputation as a bit of a klutz over the past five years, caught...
Apple CEO Tim Cook. Photo by Bloomberg.
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Apple’s Cash Could Be Better Spent on Research

By Martin Peers · May 7, 2015 7:00am PDT
Many investors are surely applauding Apple CEO Tim Cook’s decision to both institute and then aggressively expand big stock buyback and dividend programs to return cash to shareholders. But what is more creditable is Mr. Cook’s more generous approach to research and development. In the past two years, Apple has sharply boosted its spending on... Many investors are surely applauding Apple CEO Tim Cook’s decision to both institute and then...
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos. Photo by Bloomberg.
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Perils of Unknown for Investors Wading Into Amazon

By Martin Peers · Apr 30, 2015 10:01am PDT · 3 comments
When Amazon.com reported first-quarter earnings last week, the company surprised investors by revealing that its cloud computing unit, Amazon Web Services, was making a substantial profit, while its e-commerce business wasn’t as profitable as some thought. It was the opposite of what some had expected and a reminder that the inner workings of... When Amazon.com reported first-quarter earnings last week, the company surprised investors by...
Short-selling specialist Jim Chanos. Photo by Bloomberg.
Shorting Private Stocks Would Be Good for Tech
By Martin Peers · Apr 23, 2015 7:00am PDT · 2 comments
Short-selling specialist Jim Chanos. Photo by Bloomberg.
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Shorting Private Stocks Would Be Good for Tech

By Martin Peers · Apr 23, 2015 7:00am PDT · 2 comments
Public market investors are pouring more into the private tech markets, able to put big sums to work and be well-positioned in the event a company goes public. But one thing these investors can’t do in the private-company market is to bet on a stock going down in price, by selling short. That should change. Investors who sell short—selling... Public market investors are pouring more into the private tech markets, able to put big sums to...
Chart by Peter Schulz
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The Truth About Google’s Stock Price

By Martin Peers · Apr 16, 2015 7:01am PDT
For more than a decade, from 2001 until about 2013, Microsoft’s stock bounced around the same price, as investors realized the software giant’s big growth days were over. There are a growing number of signs that Google has entered what could be a similarly lengthy flatline period. What this reflects is that, declining search forecasts included,... For more than a decade, from 2001 until about 2013, Microsoft’s stock bounced around the same...
GoPro CEO Nick Woodman. Photo by Bloomberg.
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Don’t Count GoPro Out

By Martin Peers · Apr 9, 2015 7:00am PDT · 5 comments
Consumer electronics is, by and large, a very tough business. Whether it’s TV sets or smartphones, margins tend to be low and there’s always the danger of a cheap knockoff hitting the market. Indeed, that seems to be the fear investors have about GoPro, the once-hyped action camera maker. After going public last June at $24 per share, the stock... Consumer electronics is, by and large, a very tough business. Whether it’s TV sets or...
Apple CEO Tim Cook. Photo by Bloomberg.
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Why Analysts are Flying Blind on Forecasting New Markets

By Martin Peers · Apr 1, 2015 10:00am PDT
News reports last month of Apple’s latest attempt to launch an online video service prompted Wall Street firm Nomura Research to publish two research reports. One said any new Apple service wouldn’t be attractive to current “core pay TV customers.” The other implied that Apple’s new service could sign up at least 18.5 million consumers by 2017,... News reports last month of Apple’s latest attempt to launch an online video service prompted Wall...
Disney CEO Robert Iger. Photo by Bloomberg.
Media Investors Are Living in Denial
By Martin Peers · Mar 26, 2015 7:01am PDT
Disney CEO Robert Iger. Photo by Bloomberg.
True Value

Media Investors Are Living in Denial

By Martin Peers · Mar 26, 2015 7:01am PDT
Media company investors appear to be living in their own reality. Pay TV subscribers fell 2 percent in 2014, says Nielsen, while national TV advertising in the fourth quarter dropped 0.9 percent, according to MoffettNathanson. And everyone from Sony to Dish Network to Apple is making it easier for users to cut the cord. Yet a three-year-long... Media company investors appear to be living in their own reality. Pay TV subscribers fell 2...