Who can afford $100B over 4 or 5 years for data center? Very few are capable. The list is incredibly short. Maybe: 1. Microsoft/OpenAI 2. Google 3. Amazon 4. Apple 5. Meta 6. Maybe Elon (it is possible that there are enough crazy people to put money on Elon) Anyone else? I am increasingly doubtful if more than 3 or 4 will bother to invest at this level for training. In 3 or 4 years, there may be no one willing to invest at this level for training.

$100B is far too high. With open-source models from Meta (and others) the future of OpenAI and other model companies is questionable. Even being first to a cutting-edge model is not a formula for success. Look at browser wars and how that developed.

Keep an eye on Synopsys. Their purchase of Ansys was brilliant. As per usual the investment club worried about financial metrics while the management company looked toward the future. Nvidia’s purchase of stock is a pretty bullish indicator of the wisdom of the deal.